Jon Hulburd's new ad: "Ben Quayle has no business running for Congress"
The ad nicely captures Quayle’s frat-boy sensibility. One assumes the Hulburd campaign is buoyed by a new poll that sees him leading Quayle 46 to 44.
More interestingly, it put Quayle’s negatives at 52 percent, pretty high in a right-wing district.
The leading Congressional analysts aren’t buying it, but it seems smart to hammer on Quayle’s negatives, if that’s where the advantage lies.
3:03 PM
Laurie Roberts: The Arizona Republic's "go-to newsgal"
Yesterday PHXated noted that the Arizona Republic, in keeping with its feeling that its terrestrial readers don’t want to be bothered with uncomfortable news about Little Benny Quayle, did not include, in its printed edition, a report of a fairly notable poll on the Quayle-Hulburd race.
It said that Quayle was actually trailing Hulburd, 46 to 44, and that his unfavorables were at 52 percent.
While it’s possible the poll was what the big-time analysts call an “outlier,” some of its other findings—support for John McCain and such—were in keeping with the distric’s conservative makeup.
Anyway, the Republic was in a quandary: Having played down as much as possible the previous bad news for Quayle—mostly stemming from his unsavory association with a skanky web site when he could have, you know, been involved in any sort of public service that might make him qualified to go to Congress—it was even more difficult for the paper to write about a poll that showed a big chunk of the electorate was turning up it nose at the candidate, plainly based on the information the paper hadn’t wanted to get out.
Fortunately, Laurie Roberts, a columnist in the local news section, comes through again. It was she who, after the Republican primary was over, told people about Quayle and DirtyScottsdale.com.
Now she’s again columnizing about news that the paper itself has never vouchsafed to readers:
The poll, by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling, surveyed 655 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.8 percent. It showed Hulburd and Quayle in a dead heat with 10 percent undecided.
While both men were viewed favorably by a third of those polled, Quayle was disliked by 52 percent, including half of the independents surveyed. Hulburd, meanwhile, was disliked by 20 percent all voters surveyed, with 47 percent unsure what to think.
Interestingly, Roberts cites some evidence of a contention by New Times' James King … basically, not only that Quayle never lied about his involvement in Dirty Scottsdale, but that Politico, the online political magazine, is backing away from its initial contention that he did:
In a recent profile, Politico wrote that Quayle “has always admitted to writing some posts under a pseudonym”. That’s a far cry from its August story, headlined “Ben Quayle changes story about Dirty Scottsdale website”.
[Quayle campaign manager] Heiler says Quayle was responding to questions about whether he was involved in founding the website. The reporter, he said, never directly asked whether he had written for the site.
PHXated’s not buying it, for reasons delineated in the James King post but will look into the question of whether Politico itself is now downplaying what it once trumpeted.
7:46 AM
FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes that poll that puts Ben Quayle behind
From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog on NYTimes.com:
Public Policy Polling conducts surveys for Democratic candidates (and Daily Kos, a liberal blog) in addition to issuing surveys under its own name. Until recently, we have not found an especially large “house effect” for Public Policy Polling — that is, they’ve had plenty of surveys showing poor numbers for Democrats. But lately, such an effect has arguably become more noticeable: they are the only pollster, for instance, to show the Democrat Michael Bennet with a lead in Colorado, although several other pollsters have shown that race tightening. And their survey of Arizona’s Third Congressional District, which showed the Republican Ben Quayle trailing in a district that ordinarily leans Republican, has raised a few eyebrows, although Mr. Quayle may be an unappealing enough candidate that the result is not necessarily implausible.
6:46 PM
The Arizona Republic takes a pass on Ben Quayle's disastrous poll numbers
We’ve noticed before how the Arizona Republic didn’t take much interest in Little Benny Quayle’s involvement with a porny web site, Dirty Scottsdale.
Skanky sex, a famous political name…those aren’t the sorts of things the media should be interested in.
Now we can see the paper’s not interested in any bad news about Quayle.
Yesterday, a reputable polling company released numbers on the District 3 race. (The company is Public Policy Polling.)
It said Quayle was trailing opponent Jon Hulburd, 46 to 44.
Worse, it gave Quayle a 52 percent unfavorable rating.
Is this news?
Politico this a.m. has a lede story booming “99 Dem House Seats in Danger—that is to say, it’s not a good time to be a Democrat running for Congress.
District 3 went for McCain by a 57 to 42 margin—that is to say, it’s a solidly GOP district.
But nothing about it in the Republic this a.m. Columnist Laurie Roberts, however, did do a blog post:
The poll of 655 likely voters included more Republicans than Democrats and respondents favored Sen. John McCain by a wide margin over Rodney Glassman. Those aspects would seem in line with the district’s partisan makeup and its presumed political loyalties in another race.
But home readers of the paper—the ones who are clustered in the upscale developments in northeast Phoenix, where this battle is being fought—aren’t let in on the news.
7:45 AM
Public Policy Polling: Hulburd ahead of Quayle, 46 to 44
The Daily Kos-sponsored poll has some pretty interesting numbers, the most unexpected of which is Hulburd ahead by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent.
From the post, emphasis added:
Hulburd is winning independents 50-36, and moderates 66-27. While only eight percent of Obama voters are defecting to Quayle, 18 percent of McCain voters are going with Hulburd. And even 19 percent of Republican voters are choosing the Democratic candidate, likely an artifact of a nasty primary. In fact, Quayler’s favorable/unfavorable rating of 34/52 is shockingly bad for a first-time House candidate, and incudes 30 percent unfavorables from Republican voters, and 29/51 from independents. Hulburd is at 33/20, including 37/16 from independents. Yet given that half of voters have no idea what to think of Hulburd, he may be benefiting from an “anyone but Quayle” dynamic.
The big question: How will Ben Quayle’s apologist-in-residence at New Times spin the numbers?
The answer is here—and note how Quayle’s unfavorables aren’t mentioned.
2:00 PM
UPDATE: What's up with the Arizona House races?
At 538.com, Nate Silver says …
… That Schweikert has a 75.7 percent chance in knocking Mitchell out of his seat. Recent polls show Mitchell holding his own, but the site doesn’t give much credence to them. Details here.
… That Ben Quayle has a 97.7 percent chance of beating Jon Hulburd. Details here.
… and that Giffords has a 58 percent chance of winning over Jesse Kelly. Details here.
Real Clear Politics gives Ben Quayle Shadegg’s seat over Jon Hulburd in the third district.
In the fifth, it says David Schweikert has the edge over Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell.
It says the first (Paul Gosar vs. Dem. incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick) and the eighth (Jesse Kelly vs. Dem. incumbent Gabrielle Giffords) are tossups.
Of these, the most portentous is the Mitchell race, because the site has recently downgraded his chances:
Mitchell faces the same problem that many first- and second- term Democrats face: The wind is no longer at their backs and a Democratic administration has forced them to cast votes in favor of liberal policies that never would have come up under a Republican president. Mitchell will face off again his 2008 opponent, David Schweikert. Schweikert held Mitchell to 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and this is a very different year than 2008.
12:27 PM
Did Ben Quayle get his facts wrong?
It certainly seems like it. The Jon Hulburd campaign is sending around the video below, which shows Quayle nattering on about debt and government spending.
In it, he says:
“Government in America is today spending well over 14.5 trillion dollars a year. and since government can’t possibly collect that much money from the people, it’s loading massive debt on the backs of the next generation, so politicians can go on spending your money on their agenda.”
It certainly seems as if the Hulburd campaign is right, and that Quayle misstated the size of the budget; it’s only about $3.5 trillion.
The Hulburd folks say Quayle pulled the ad after about an hour on You Tube. I emailed the Quayle campaign’s PR person and will post her reply when I get it.
Here’s the ad:
The really irritating thing about the spot isn’t the mistake.
It’s the phony concern about debt. There are myriad charts out there—here’s a good one—detailing how the debt has not just risen but risen astronomically under Republican presidents and declined under Democratic ones.
This Wikipedia page, for example, it shows how since the Kennedy Era all Democratic presidents have reduced the debt and GOP ones have increased it—with the exception of the first Nixon term.
And in most cases the increase was massive: An average of more than twelve percent a year.
8:20 AM
A new Jon Hulburd attack ad on Ben Quayle
The focus of the Hulburd campaign now seems pretty clear: Running as Republican as possible.
This way, Hulburd can hit Ben Quayle hard on his skanky background and at the same time protect his political flank in the right-leaning third district.
PHXated disagrees with Hulburd’s economic positions, but it’s hard to begrudge him them in this district—previously represented by the Neanderthal John Shadegg— particularly if it’s a way to keep Quayle out of the seat.
The ad features Hulburd’s wife, who is touted as the head of a group called “Republicans for Hulburd.”
“I’m worried that Ben Quayle doesn’t have the life experiences or the maturity to take on Washington,” she says.
Hulburd was on Greta VanSusteren’s show on Fox a couple of weeks back. You can see her recite his tax positions and ask, “Are you running as a Republican or a Democrat?”
The campaign has a list of GOPers supporting Hulburd here.
Previously in PHXated:
The complete Dirty Scottsdale tale.
So … what exactly does Ben Quayle’s wife do?.
How the Arizona Republic took a dive on the tawdry Ben Quayle/Dirty Scottsdale story.
11:37 AM
Doonesbury on Little Benny Quayle
(Click on the image for the full Sunday strip)
8:26 AM
Braham Resnik to Ben Quayle: "What have you ever done to 'knock the hell' out of anything?"
Ben Quayle on 12 News' “Sunday Square Off.” Resnik’s questioning is tough, and it’s worth watching.
We learn:
Quayle’s had five jobs in eight years, and couldn’t cite an example of anything he’d “knocked the hell out of.”
Won’t give back his large contributions from Cerebrus, his father’s company, which got a $4 billion bailout from George Bush.
And for the first time Quayle says he “regrets” writing for DirtyScottsdale.com, though he still lies once or twice about his involvement with it to keep his run going.
8:18 AM
Ben Quayle: There will be debates!
Ben Quayle’s spokesperson, Megan Rose, tells PHXated that the candidate will debate Democrat Jon Hulburd.
“Right now we are just working out dates and schedules,” she said.
We mentioned that the Hulburd campaign has been criticizing the Quayle campaign for not agreeing to debates thus far.
“It’s nothing he’s running from. We’ve got a whole lot of offers.”
How many debates is the campaign going to do? we asked.
“We don’t know, but I would think there will be at least two,” she said.
UPDATE: Hulburd’s campaign manager, Josh Abner, tells PHXated, “We haven’t heard anything from them. It’s news to us.”
Tonight, meanwhile, Quayle’s father, the former vice president, is holding a fundraiser for Quayle and to other local GOP congressional candidates in his Paradise Valley home.
Special guest: House minority leader John Boehner.
From Politico:
Dentist Paul Gosar, running against Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the 1st, sent out an invitation Monday inviting supporters to the fundraiser, which will also benefit 5th District nominee Dave Schweikert in his race against Rep. Harry Mitchell.
PHXated’s complete Ben Quayle coverage is here.
11:44 AM
Jon Hulburd on Ben Quayle's "theater of the absurd"
The Hulburd campaign held a conference call with local bloggers this a.m.
Hulburd came across as very knowledgable. He spoke calmly and with authority, and with a fairly high level of granularity about almost every issue.
On a couple of subjects—extending the Bush tax cuts for the rich, and ending the estate tax—his positions are indistinguishable from the Republican economic policies that nearly destroyed the country. (And that have beggared Arizona.)
When pressed on these points by the largely liberal contingent on the phone, he stood his ground.
But one most other issues he came across as fairly sane: He was pro choice; in favor of ending don’t ask don’t tell; he supported the cap and trade initiative; he advocated green and alternative energy policies, particularly for how they could help improve Arizona’s economy.
On trade he was more moderate, saying he was for “fair trade,” not “free trade.”
The highlights, however, were when he went after his opponent, Ben Quayle.
On Quayle’s “Obama is the worst president in history” ad:
“Part of my response has been muted out there. … I don’t want to be in a position of making this a big issue, because it plays into stupid Ben Quayle and his stupid ad.
“There are twelve different reasons it’s not just factually wrong but that it’s the wrong messenger, even if you’re on the right.
“Everything about it, visually and scripted, is repugnant and silly. It’s a theater of the absurd.”
But he noted that the ad might have motivated voters in the primary and that his campaign was on the lookout for the next similar gambit.
Asked about Quayle’s weaknesses, Hulburd offered a long assessment.
Specifically setting aside Quayle’s involvement with the skanky Dirty Scottsdale web site, Hulburd said Quayle was vulnerable in three areas: Professional, political and social.
“The social stuff. He’s barely been here. As a father of five I’d like to see him spend a couple of years juggling school schedules and changing diapers and doing what regular people have to do.
“He has no life experiences both in the Valley or elsewhere that I can tell you about that make me think the guy gets it.
“From the professional standpoint, I don’t think one year at Snell & Wilmer [a law firm at which Quayle was an associate] qualifies him for anything…. And what has he done for the community? His bio is thin as a reed …
“He’s done very very little if anything as far as community works.
“And then this political piece is fascinating. [The Vernon Parker campaign] was trying to push him as an empty suit. I think that’s what he is. … and it galls me that he could simply come in here and so cavalierly pick up this very very important seat.
“If I scrabble and work hard and get it, we all know if I get it I’ll be under attack instantly. If he gets it he’s there until he’s our next senator.”
Hulburd was asked about Quayle’s carpetbagger status.
“He’s making a big deal about it the wrong way. He should do what I do, which is say that like a lot of you I come from somewhere else and move on. [Hulburd has actually been in the valley for nearly three decades.]
“And what he does is say he’s fourth generation and that he has all these amazing ties in the valley, which is a load of shit.
“He bought a house in the district last December.
“And a month later his new congressman, John Shadegg, announces he’s getting out, and a month after that he gets in, and a month after that he gets married.
“And in that three- or four-month period, if I were 33 years old my head would explode. It would change your world.
“He has no ties to District three, it’s silly.”
Previously in PHXated:
The complete Dirty Scottsdale tale.
So … what exactly does Ben Quayle’s wife do?.
How the Arizona Republic took a dive on the tawdry Ben Quayle/Dirty Scottsdale story.
1:04 PM
Jon Hulburd goes on the attack against Ben Quayle
This is a radio spot, with images added for You Tube viewing, run by the Hulburd campaign on local Christian stations.
“I’ve read that congressional candidate Ben Quayle helped create one of the most offensive websites I’ve ever seen,” a woman says in the ad, currently running on three Christian radio stations and a Phoenix conservative talk radio station. “The site promotes drugs and prostitution, is filled with meanness and foul language, humiliates women and even mocks people with Down syndrome.”
7:18 AM
Jon Hulburd: I want five debates with Brock Landers!
The democratic challenger to Young Benny Quayle is Jon Hulburd.
He ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The third congressonal district is solidly red, but he may have a chance given the young Quayle’s vulnerabilities.
He talks to ABC 15’s Dave Biscobing here:
“This election is now between Jon Hulburd and Brock Landers,” said a statement released by his campaign hours after the primary ended.
It’s a shot at Quayle, who’s accused of writing under the pseudonym “Brock Landers” on a racy blog called DirtyScottsdale.com a few years ago.
The statement continues: “It’s between a young man who fabricated a family, degraded women, and then tried to lie about it, and a small businessman and father of five who has been dedicated to his community. These concerns were raised by Republicans during the primary and at least 77% of Republican voters were unhappy with Ben Quayle’s response.”
Hulburd has unsuccessfully run for office in the past, but based on Quayle’s own history, political experts believe the Democrat could steal the seat in the traditionally Republican district.
And Hulburd’s campaign also isn’t waiting to further challenge Quayle, asking the GOP candidate to square off in five debates.
The video:
11:38 AM
The crazy race in the third congressional district
Luige del Puerto in the Arizona Capitol Times (in a story reprinted on the ABC 15 site) takes a look at the fallout from Rep. John Shadegg’s retirement:
Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd shocked everyone when his campaign said it had raised a whopping $750,000 – more than any other candidate in the race has reported so far. More than $250,000 was donated during the second quarter, a very healthy fundraising figure that could pose some problems this fall for whoever emerges from the Republican primary on Aug. 24.
Meanwhile, over on the GOP side?
[T]he Republican contest is shaping up as a true scramble – campaign managers are trying to determine which candidate they need to target, and many candidates are trying to appeal to the same voting bloc, whether defined by geography or ideology.
Political observers have categorized GOP candidates into two tiers, but none of the candidates can be counted out. Anyone could break out from the pack, and it could take as little as 20 percent of the vote to win.
6:27 AM