FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes that poll that puts Ben Quayle behind
From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog on NYTimes.com:
Public Policy Polling conducts surveys for Democratic candidates (and Daily Kos, a liberal blog) in addition to issuing surveys under its own name. Until recently, we have not found an especially large “house effect” for Public Policy Polling — that is, they’ve had plenty of surveys showing poor numbers for Democrats. But lately, such an effect has arguably become more noticeable: they are the only pollster, for instance, to show the Democrat Michael Bennet with a lead in Colorado, although several other pollsters have shown that race tightening. And their survey of Arizona’s Third Congressional District, which showed the Republican Ben Quayle trailing in a district that ordinarily leans Republican, has raised a few eyebrows, although Mr. Quayle may be an unappealing enough candidate that the result is not necessarily implausible.
6:46 PM
What are Jan Brewer's chances of losing her election?
According to Nate Silver’s 538.com, the answer is dispiriting:
8:35 AM
538.com on John McCain's 2010 senate race
Nate Silver’s clear-thinking analysis of the possibility of party flips in next year’s senate races sees things as pretty balanced right now: Eight Republicans and seven Dems in the fifteen races most likely to see a party switch.
The possible re-election of Arizona’s senior senator comes far down on his list, number 23 out of 38 races. (There’s more than 33 or 34 because of vacancies.) Here’s what Silver says about the race; the down red arrow means the chance of a party flip has decreased in the past month:
23.
Arizona (R-McCain) — Finally some polling numbers out; PPP shows him with somewhat tepid approval numbers, but doesn’t show any of the potential Democratic candidates coming particularly close — certainly not close enough to get anyone like Gabby Giffords interested in a kamikaze mission. Still, McCain has been very quiet, and it might be wise to hedge some against the possibility of a last-minute retirement.
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