At 538.com, Nate Silver says …

… That Schweikert has a 75.7 percent chance in knocking Mitchell out of his seat. Recent polls show Mitchell holding his own, but the site doesn’t give much credence to them. Details here.

… That Ben Quayle has a 97.7 percent chance of beating Jon Hulburd. Details here.

… and that Giffords has a 58 percent chance of winning over Jesse Kelly. Details here.


Real Clear Politics gives Ben Quayle Shadegg’s seat over Jon Hulburd in the third district.

In the fifth, it says David Schweikert has the edge over Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell.

It says the first (Paul Gosar vs. Dem. incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick) and the eighth (Jesse Kelly vs. Dem. incumbent Gabrielle Giffords) are tossups.

Of these, the most portentous is the Mitchell race, because the site has recently downgraded his chances:

Mitchell faces the same problem that many first- and second- term Democrats face: The wind is no longer at their backs and a Democratic administration has forced them to cast votes in favor of liberal policies that never would have come up under a Republican president. Mitchell will face off again his 2008 opponent, David Schweikert. Schweikert held Mitchell to 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and this is a very different year than 2008.