ABC 15 is reporting that Arpaio will "likely" run for governor

Reports the station’s Josh Bernstein, choosing his words carefully:

PHOENIX – Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is expected to announce Monday if he’ll run for Arizona governor.

Several sources confirm to the ABC15 Investigators that Arpaio has already made a decision, and will likely run for the office.

In a news conference after this story was first published, the Sheriff said he was still weighing his options, but also that he would in fact have an announcement on Monday.

Arpaio has flirted with running for governor in the past, but always ultimately pulled back.

While his partisans bruit about his high approval ratings, in fact his electoral support has dropped with each successive race. In 2008 he won with 55 percent of the vote against a fairly uncompelling candidate and then only after a remarkably dirty campaign.

Here’s an Arizona Capital Times report on a recent poll that showed Terry Goddard competitive with any Republican opponent:

The poll, by the North Carolina-based firm Public Policy Polling, showed Goddard, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, with slim leads over incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. The poll, which surveyed 803 voters from April 23-25, showed him beating Republican candidates Dean Martin, Buz Mills and John Munger by wider margins as well.

Goddard led both Brewer and Arpaio by 47-to-44 percent margins. Both hypothetical matchups fell within the poll’s 3.4 percent margin of error. Arpaio has said he is considering a run for governor but has not declared as a candidate.