Can Ann Kirkpatrick be defeated in 2010?
Greg Patterson thinks so. His candidate is Rusty Bowers; his argument is that Kirkpatrick’s victory last year rested on new voters:
They’re young, idealistic Obama supporters who aren’t going to vote in 2010. Those voters aren’t coming back to the polls in a non-presidential year and they sure as heck aren’t coming back without Obama on the ticket. […] Forget about the percentage of the electorate who—like Bowers—are 4th or 5th generation LDS Arizonans. Focus on turnout. The extra 75,000 young idealistic voters who showed up to vote for Obama aren’t going to be there in 2010. In 2010, CD 1 is a Republican seat.
(Emphases added. I also deleted some rantings in the middle of that graf that detracted from his argument.)
Patterson may be right. I’d note three things. One is that the national Democratic party is going to remain focused on Arizona; it plainly smells blood here. The other, which explains the first, is that the three of the state’s eight congressional districts held by Republicans are all seeing their center of gravity pulled inward to Maricopa County, where demographic shifts, culturally and racially, long term are working against the GOP.
And finally, the elections are 14 months away. Anything can happen, of course, but a year from now it may seem plain that the economy, for one, had bottomed out ths summer. Obama has more than a year to show improvement in the lousy condition President Bush left the country, and the world, in.
6:00 AM
Republic Watch: Boring us to death
The Republic’s Valley & State section should be the heart of the paper. No one cares what the Republic writes about what’s going on in, say, Iran, but hey—local news is where the paper can shine, right?
So turn to page two of the local section, which, with all its little columns and squibs, should be where the paper’s crew of reporters get out there and dig us up some information.
Instead, here’s the hedlines and first grafs of the three capsule-news items today in the column for Phoenix—which is, you’ll remember, the fifth largest city in the U.S.:
Thrift shop’s fall season begins
PHOENIX—The fall season begins today at the Assistance League of Phoenix’s thrift shop. Bargain hunters will find used clothing, furniture, books and other items.
Phoenix College Cafe reopens
PHOENIX—The Phoenix College Culinary Cafe officially reopens today for the fall semester. Lunch is served every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.. Diners can select from a three-course prix fixe menu for $9.75 or a list of a la carte specials.
Beatitudes sets monthly series
PHOENIX—Residents can learn about organic gardening, specialty cooking, arts and culture at a free monthly series at Beatitudes campus, a continuing-care retirement community in north central Phoenix.
I can’t link to the items because they don’t seem to be in the Republic’s online edition.
Note that those are just the beginnings of these in-depth dispatches, which show us that the Republic will not be beat when it comes to breaking news from the realm of thrift-shop sale seasons, college cafeteria menus, and continuing-care retirement-community lecture series.
6:00 AM
